beyondzerosum

Logo of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (Wikipedia)

One can’t open a newspaper (if anyone still does that anymore) without seeing a lot of F.U.D. about Iran.  What is F.U.D?  Fear, uncertainty and doubt.  “Existential threat”, “zone of immunity”, and “unacceptable” are terms that can be read in almost every article. Unfortunately, there is a lot of truth in these descriptions. On the other hand, there seems to be only a single prescription at this point in time. That, of course, is John McCain’s old tune: “Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb-bomb Iran” (Granted the Rx is crafted a bit more elegantly than that).

But are there options?

Haven’t we tried diplomacy and it didn’t work?

You might find an unexpected answer in Trita Parsi’s new book, A Single Roll of the Dice.  Trita is one of the foremost experts on the relationship between Israel and Iran (his first book, A Treacherous Alliance has been called one of the “few detailed studies examining Israeli and Iranian attitudes and postures towards each other outside the context of U.S.-Iranian relations” by none other than the Rand Corporation in a recent comprehensive white paper:  Israel and Iran – A Dangerous Rivalry)  Trita reviews the month-by-month history of events involving the Iran nuclear program and vigorously argues that for many reasons, including missteps by all parties concerned, diplomacy was constantly being shifted off course.  He especially highlights the little know fact that a diplomatic deal was ACTUALLY MADE in MAY, 2010 with Iran by the Turks and Brazilians – but was essentially rejected because the sanctions’ “train” had already moved out of the station.

Haven’t we tried Sanctions and they haven’t worked?

First, sanctions do appear to be having an effect.  The value of the Iranian currency has dropped almost 50%.  Other economic shifts are being felt.  Second, the latest round of sanctions has only been in place since approximately January 1st – hardly enough time to assess their impact.  Third, even harsher sanctions are scheduled to kick in over the next several months.

There isn’t time in this post to discuss possible consequences of the third option: military action, but suffice it to say that we need to be very upfront and sanguine about potential consequences of either a unilateral Israeli attack or a combined operation with the U.S.  There is no doubt that Iran represents a potentially very serious threat to the entire world – but so did Saddam Hussein.  To ignore the lessons of that strategic debacle is simply gross negligence

Related articles

• Despite war drums, experts insist Iran N-deal possible (nation.com.pk)
• Director of National Intelligence Clapper Has Doubts About Iranian Bomb, But Sen. Graham Is “Very Convinced” (disquietreservations.blogspot.com)